Published: Fri, April 21, 2017
World | By Paul Elliott

Hinting At Support, Obama Calls Centrist French Presidential Candidate Macron

He may, nevertheless, have a smoother run to a parliamentary majority than Macron or Le Pen, given that he has a party structure in his The Republicans grouping. If this election is as wide open as the polls suggest, then Fillon, with his solid block of conservative voters, could still be in the game.

"I voted for (Nicolas) Sarkozy, we got nothing". The correlation between the French bond yield and EUR/USD has also risen to -53%, so when the bond yield rises the euro tends to fall half of the time, and vice versa.

What would be a euro positive and negative result? .

NEW YORK, April 20 The euro rose to a three-week high against the US dollar on Thursday as some traders shut down broad bets against the common currency ahead of the first round of the French presidential elections on Sunday.

This was, until late January, seen as the most likely outcome.

"The lackluster growth and high unemployment of recent years are fertile ground for the populist and eurosceptic Marine Le Pen", said Jessica Hinds, European economist at Capital Economics.

Given such demands, markets sense Le Pen holds a much deeper ideological hostility to the European Union than Melenchon, whose principal objection is to the bloc's insistence on austerity policies - a view shared by many more centrist voters.

French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who has dominated the campaign with her anti-immigration, anti-EU proposals, is appealing to her electoral base in hopes of maintaining a shot at the runoff.

The 65-year-old Melenchon has eased his campaign of attack against the euro currency in the last days of the campaign but confirmed his role as defender of French workers. Polls show that support for Macron is shallow, with even those who say they back him unsure whether they will actually turn out for a candidate with no formal party affiliation and a platform that seeks to please both the left and right.

EUR/USD was trading around 1.0720, quite steadily.

Even though she is widely expected to lose in the May 7 run-off if she makes it that far, her strength in the polls has left many anxious about the future of France and the European Union.

Compared to Le Pen and her team, Europe's leaders seem woefully underprepared.

Addressing almost 5,000 flag-waving supporters in the southern city of Marseille, where two Frenchmen were arrested Tuesday on suspicion of planning an attack on the election, the National Front (FN) leader said: "I have been denouncing this awful poison of Islamic terrorism since I launched my campaign. and none of my rivals are willing to debate the subject".

Some of these reforms, though met with harsh criticism, were enacted and have led to President Francois Hollande's downfall. We shall have to see if the options market is correct.

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